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 Which way do UNSC members lean ahead of this crucial decision on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire?

December 8, 2023

The UN Security Council, which is the most powerful body in the organization, will convene today at 14:00 GMT to examine the conflict in Gaza. This comes after Secretary-General Antonio Guterres used a unique procedure to invoke Article 99 in order to push for a ceasefire.

At least 1,147 Israelis and 17,177 Palestinians have died in Gaza since October 7. Thousands more people are still missing beneath the ruins of Gaza's demolished structures.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), the sole Arab nation among the 15 members of the UNSC, has pushed for a draft resolution calling for a "immediate humanitarian ceasefire" in response to Antonio Guterres' plea.

Which draft resolution is this new one?

This will be the sixth resolution proposed since the war began in an attempt to reach a consensus to stop the killing.

"The situation in the Gaza Strip is catastrophic and close to irreversible," stated a statement from the UAE representation to the UN. We are impatient. For the Council to demand a humanitarian ceasefire, decisive action is required.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and other Arab countries back the draft resolution.

However, in order for a resolution to be enacted, it needs to receive the support of at least nine of the UN Security Council's fifteen members, and none of the council's five permanent members—the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK—must veto the proposal.

 On November 24, Israel and Hamas agreed to a four-day cease-fire in Gaza, which was then extended for a further three days. [Al Jazeera]

How have the 15 members voted thus far on issues regarding the Gaza War?

The UNSC is composed of ten non-permanent members chosen every two years by the General Assembly, in addition to the five permanent members who have the power to veto decisions.

Albania, Brazil, Ecuador, Gabon, Ghana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Switzerland, and the United Arab Emirates are the non-permanent members at the moment.

Throughout the war, the UNSC has voted on five resolutions, but has been unable to adopt four of them because of a lack of agreement among the member states.

Four of the fifteen members—France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—voted against the initial proposal headed by Russia on October 16. The primary objection to the proposal was that Hamas was neither mentioned or denounced. An immediate ceasefire was demanded in this proposal.

 Measures to terminate the war have been consistently vetoed by the US [Al Jazeera]

October 18 saw Brazil lead the second draft. Despite the resolution's overwhelming support and condemnation of Hamas and need for humanitarian pauses, the US rejected it. According to US ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, this is because Israel's right to self-defense was left out of the resolution.

On October 25, Russia put forth another document that demanded the release of Hamas prisoners and a humanitarian ceasefire. The resolution did not, however, denounce Hamas. There were only four votes in favor. The UK stated that the Russian proposal did not uphold Israel's right to self-defense and that it isfavor of the UNSC working toward a "balanced text."

On October 25, the US also spearheaded a draft resolution that advocated for a humanitarian halt rather than a ceasefire. Russia and China, two permanent members, blocked the resolution despite ten countries voting in favor of it.

On November 15, the UNSC ultimately approved a resolution spearheaded by Malta that demanded humanitarian pauses and the delivery of aid to Gaza. Twelve countries voted in favor, with the US, UK, and Russia abstaining.

On October 27, Jordan spearheaded a nonbinding resolution in the UN General Assembly demanding an immediate end to hostilities in Gaza, unrestricted access to humanitarian aid within the beleaguered enclave, and an end to Israel's demand for the evacuation of northern Gaza.

This time, just 14 countries—including the US and Israel—voted against it, while 45 countries abstained. 120 countries, including France, supported it. This resolution was approved.

What stances have members of the UNSC taken regarding requests for a ceasefire?

• During the vote that Moscow sponsored on October 16, Russia, China, Gabon, and Mozambique all voted in favor of an immediate ceasefire, and they haven't moved since.

• The UAE has demanded a ceasefire and is the one who brought the most recent resolution up for debate on Friday.

• On November 15, Brazil's UN envoy declared that his country backed Guterres' appeal for a humanitarian truce. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, has also previously demanded a cease-fire.

• On November 29, at the UN, Malta and Ecuador also supported a humanitarian ceasefire.

• The French permanent representative to the UN also demanded that the temporary truce that had been in place for a week last month "be permanent and lead to a ceasefire" during the UNSC meeting on November 29.

• Switzerland, Ghana, and Albania have all publicly supported humanitarian pauses but have not endorsed resolutions that have demanded complete ceasefires.

• Japan supported humanitarian pauses but voted against requests for a ceasefire.

• Calls for a ceasefire have been met with vetoes from the US and the UK.

What could occur at the conference today?

On Guterres' recommendation, the Security Council might take up a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, but as they have in the past, the US and the UK in particular might block the plan.

According to Ian Wilson, a politics and security studies lecturer at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia, "The US will veto any resolution calling for a ceasefire, no matter how carefully it is worded," as he previously told Al Jazeera.

Anything that aims to restrict Israel is always met with a veto from the US. Given that the entire world witnesses them endorsing and supplying the weapons for mass slaughter, it is utterly unproductive.

Source ALJAZEERA