Amid Red Sea tensions and impending data, equities are trembling.

 

Source reuters.com

Amid Red Sea tensions and impending data, equities are trembling.

December 4, London (Reuters) - As investors were cautious ahead of a plethora of economic data this week that will test market bets on rate cuts from major central banks and the status of the global economy in the coming year, Wall Street stock futures fell on Monday.

Dow e-minis 1YMcv1, S&P 500 e-minis EScv1, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcv1 were down 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5%, respectively, at 07:22 ET.

Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea on Sunday ran the risk of rekindling market concerns about an extension of Israel and Hamas' conflict, which might cloud the picture for the rise that saw U.S. stocks close last week at a record high.

"That situation appears to be under control as of right now. Paul Watters, head of European credit analysis at S&P Global Ratings, stated, "But the spillovers, the risks around this, can't be underestimated -- the risks to oil if Iran became involved, and obviously that could have a big spillover effects on supply chains, inflation, and financial markets broadly."

The U.S. payroll report for November, which is coming on Friday, was another important concern for analysts and traders. It needs to be strong enough to maintain the economic soft-landing scenario without endangering the likelihood of an easing. According to median projections, payrolls will increase by 180,000 while the unemployment rate remains at 3.9%.

The Fed's aim for wage growth is still being exceeded, according to Bruno Schneller, managing director of INVICO Asset Management. In the event that forthcoming data is consistent with projections, rate hikes may conclude this year and switch to reductions in 2024.

"Considering the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Fed will likely avoid actions that could be perceived as favouring any candidate, leading us to expect no major surprises and a continued data-dependent approach from the Fed," Schneller stated.

The probability that the Fed will cut as early as March is currently 60%, up from 21% one week ago, and futures are pricing in roughly 135 basis points (bps) of cuts for the entire year 2024.

Treasuries have seen an incredible turnaround; in only one week, two-year rates dropped 41 basis points, the most since the March mini-crisis in the U.S. banking industry.

It was therefore not shocking that some profit-taking surfaced on Monday, pushing 10-year note yields to 4.25%, which is still well below the peak of 5.02% that was reached in October.

GLOBAL FOR EM

The dollar was consequently severely pressured, especially when compared to the yen, which fell 1.8% last week and was last trading at 146.62. This was caused by the sharp decline in Treasury yields.

The pressure on yen carry trades has increased due to speculation that the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policies may eventually end. This might push the Japanese currency back to its July highs, which are now around 138.00. In comparison to a basket of currencies, the dollar increased by 0.2%.

At $1.0868, the euro had a 0.1% decrease. It has also been gaining recently, but this week saw a reversal as markets priced in a March rate decrease from the European Central Bank in response to unexpectedly weak inflation statistics.

In an interview conducted over the weekend, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, known for his aggressive stance, responded to the doves. Markets predict that the ECB will need to loosen in order to prevent real rates from climbing, though, as inflation is declining so quickly.

Later on Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will have an opportunity to address the public in a speech and Q&A.

Non-yielding gold, which reached a record of $2,111.39 an ounce before falling back to $2,066.73.50 an ounce at 1232 GMT, has benefited greatly from the plunge in yields.

Due to concerns about OPEC+'s ability to carry out its scheduled output reduction, oil prices fell. This is demonstrated by the fact that US oil output is above 13 million barrels per day, a record, and that the number of rigs is continually growing.

The strikes on Red Sea shipping provided only temporary respite, and at 12:33 GMT, U.S. oil dropped 41 cents to $73.66 and Brent slid 43 cents to $78.45 a barrel.

Source reuters.com